Prediction markets: information or just another price move?

A market probability is not truth. It is the current price of a shared belief. The move becomes interesting when liquidity, volume, and a clear resolution window support it.

I compare local market snapshots instead of trusting a provider's ready-made change metric. That separates a genuine move from duplicated deliveries and stale data.

A market with a wide spread, no volume, or an unclear resolution date stays on the watchlist, but it does not become a loud signal. Sometimes the honest conclusion is to wait.